Published: Monday December 28, 2009 MYT 8:15:00 AM
NEW YORK: Homes are selling at their fastest clip in nearly three years, the unemployment rate is falling and stocks are up 66 percent since their March lows - the best performance since the 1930s. What's not to like?
Plenty, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of giant bond manager Pimco.
The investor says the recovery may be gaining steam but is no different than a kid who eats too much candy at one of the birthday parties his 6-year-old daughter attends.
"We're on a sugar high," El-Erian says.
"It feels good for a while but is unsustainable."
His point: This burst of economic activity fed by government spending and near-zero interest rates will soon peter out.
As CEO at Newport Beach, Calif.-based Pimco, El-Erian, 51, oversees nearly $1 trillion in assets, more than the gross domestic product of most countries.
So when he talks, people listen.
What he's saying now:
-Stocks will drop 10 percent in the space of three or four weeks, bringing the Standard & Poor's 500 index below 1,000 - though he's not predicting when.
-The unemployment rate will be hovering above 8 percent a year from now.
-U.S. gross domestic product will grow at an average 2 percent or so for years to come - a third slower than we're used to.
El-Erian and his famous partner, Pimco founder Bill Gross, are watched closely because they've made investors a lot of money over the years.
The Pimco Total Return Fund, which at $203 billion is the world's largest mutual fund, has returned an average 7.6 percent annually over 10 years, after fees, versus 6.3 percent for Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate fixed income index fund.
The hotshots at Pimco have made money by anticipating big moves in the economy and interest rates way before other investors.
In the depths of the financial crisis last year, for instance, Pimco sold some of its Treasury bonds to panicked investors looking for a safe haven and put the proceeds into government-backed mortgages and bank debt - in time to catch the big upswing in prices of those and other riskier securities this year.
Now Pimco is once again changing tack. El-Erian says people are fooling themselves if they think all the bullish data of late means a strong recovery is in the offing.
So he's buying Treasurys and selling riskier stuff.
His bet: Investors will get scared again and want U.S.-guaranteed debt so they know they'll get repaid.
At Total Return, government-related securities, including Treasurys and corporate debt backed by Washington, comprised 48 percent of the fund's holdings in September.
That was up from 9 percent at the beginning of the year.
One of Pimco's newest funds, the Global Multi-Asset Fund, a hybrid stock-bond offering, is 35 percent in equities now, down from 60 percent earlier this year.
Investors betting on stocks or high-yield bonds are likely to be disappointed, El-Erian says.
Markets for those securities are rallying not because people like them but because they hate the puny yields of safer investments like money markets and feel they have no choice but to buy, he says.
He quips that that makes the bull market as likely to last as a forced marriage.
The danger: If stock and junk bond prices start falling, lots of investors are likely to bail, feeding the drop.
Of course, there are plenty of true believers in the bull who are not buying the El-Erian line.
James Paulsen, chief strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, with $355 billion under management, has been pounding the table for months to buy stocks.
Just like in the early 1980s, the recovery will take the form of a "V," he says. The reason: Companies have cut inventories and payrolls to the bone, so just a little revenue growth could translate into a bumper crop of profits.
El-Erian says many of the bulls don't appreciate just how much the government props still under the economy are masking its weakness.
Instead of focusing on the fundamentals today, he says, they're looking to the past, expecting a quick economic rebound because that's what's happened before.
We're trained to think the "farther you fall, the higher you'll bounce back," El-Erian says. "We're hostage to the V."
El-Erian says he learned to be open to many different views on the world (and markets) from his father, an Egyptian diplomat who insisted on reading several newspapers everyday, both on the right and the left.
El-Erian had hoped to become a college professor.
But when his father died, he took a job at the International Monetary Fund to support the family.
He rose through the ranks, eventually becoming deputy director.
In 1999 he joined Pimco, where he quickly made a name for himself with some prescient bets on emerging markets.
One of his biggest wins: selling Argentine bonds in 2000 while they were still popular with investors.
When the country defaulted the next year, the emerging markets fund that El-Erian managed returned 28 percent versus negative 1 percent for the Emerging Market Bond Index.
He eventually left to head the group that manages Harvard University's massive endowment, returning to Pimco in January 2008 in time catch the depths of the financial crisis.
El-Erian says we've probably seen the worst of the crisis but consumers, and not just Washington, need to start spending again for the recovery to really take hold.
He doesn't expect that to happen soon. Like in the Great Depression, Americans are saving more and borrowing less - a shift in attitudes toward family finances that Pimco thinks will last a generation.
That, plus the impact of more regulation and higher taxes, El-Erian says, will crimp growth for years to come.
Whatever the merits of that view, Pimco is not exactly knocking the lights out right now. So far this year, the Total Return Fund has returned 14 percent, impressive in normal times but no better than average for similar funds during the rally, according to Morningstar.
The 19.1 percent return for Global Multi-Asset, which El-Erian co-manages, lags two-thirds of its peers.
El-Erian says he sold equities "too early" but is convinced his view on the market will prove correct - even if it strikes many as a tad too pessimistic.
"I'm calling it as I see it," he says. "I'm not optimistic or pessimistic - I'm realistic." - AP
Latest business news from AP-Wire
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ฉ 1995-2009 Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd (Co No 10894-D)
Monday, December 28, 2009
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
How to diversify investments during this time of crisis
Wednesday December 2, 2009
Personal Investing - By Ooi Kok Hwa
AS a result of the financial crisis, even though most commodities have not been performing well, gold has outperformed the conventional asset classes like equity and bond.
This has prompted some investors to consider commodities as one of their investment asset classes. In this article, we will look into how to invest in commodities.
Bruno H. Solnik and Dennis W. McLeavey in their book titled “International Investments” classified commodities in three major categories – agricultural products, energy and metals.
Examples of agricultural products are fibres (wood, cotton), grains (wheat, corn, soybean), food (coffee, cocoa, orange juice) and livestock (cattle, hogs, pork bellies). Energy products can be crude oil, heating oil and natural gas whereas examples of metal products are copper, aluminum, gold, silver and platinum.
The main reason behind investing in commodities is that they have negative correlation with stock and bond returns. This will provide a good way to diversify portfolio risks. Besides, given that commodities are positively co-related to inflation, they can help investors hedge against inflation.
Investors can consider investing directly in commodities or indirectly by buying into futures contracts, bonds indexed on some commodity price as well as stocks of commodity related companies.
Some companies will invest in commodities that are extensively used as raw materials in their production processes. High commodity prices or raw material prices will affect those companies’ performance. However, if they have invested in their raw materials, even though their profitability might be affected by high raw material prices, the gains from their investment in those commodities will offset the losses in their operations.
Some investors will consider buying into commodity futures, such as crude palm oil (CPO) futures as this is one of the easiest and cheapest ways to get exposure to commodities.
However, investors need to understand that futures trading requires a high level of trading skills as most commodity players are well-equipped with the required market information, like total world supply and demand of CPO as well as the weather conditions in those producing countries. Some financial institutions may offer unit trust funds that invest directly in those commodities or indirectly through buying into commodity futures. In the United States, investors can buy into commodities via exchange traded funds (ETF) that are invested in commodities futures.
An ETF is a special type of fund that tracks some market indices and it is traded on a stock market like any common share. Given that the world economy may recover further and oil prices may go beyond US$100 per barrel again, buying into oil or other commodity related ETFs may provide retail investors an alternative to get exposure into commodities.
Since commodity cycles and the general business and stock market cycles are usually different, investing in commodities provides a good way of portfolio diversification.
Besides, investors can consider buying into collateralised futures funds (sometimes they are referred as structured products). A collateralised futures fund is a portfolio that takes a small long position in commodity futures and invests the rest of the money in government securities. Normally, it is capital guaranteed as the yield generated by government securities will be used to cover for the cost incurred for the futures contracts.
Lastly, investors can consider buying into listed companies that are commodity related. In Malaysia, if investors wish to gain from higher CPO prices, they can consider buying into plantation companies.
Given the current gold prices of more than US$1,150 per ounce, some investors are eager to know whether there are any further upsides to the gold prices. Some analysts and fund managers have predicted that the gold prices may go beyond US$1,200 to US$1,300 per ounce. Investors will rush into gold during a financial crisis, like the current financial crunch and the Great Depression in 1929-32, because gold can keep its value during those periods.
We believe that gold is a cyclical product. Even though nobody knows how high the gold prices can go, given that the world economy is showing signs of recovery, the upside potential for gold investing may be limited.
● Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.
Related Stories:
Gold price hits another record high
US stocks up, shakes off Dubai crisis scare
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ฉ 1995-2009 Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd (Co No 10894-D)
Personal Investing - By Ooi Kok Hwa
AS a result of the financial crisis, even though most commodities have not been performing well, gold has outperformed the conventional asset classes like equity and bond.
This has prompted some investors to consider commodities as one of their investment asset classes. In this article, we will look into how to invest in commodities.
Bruno H. Solnik and Dennis W. McLeavey in their book titled “International Investments” classified commodities in three major categories – agricultural products, energy and metals.
Examples of agricultural products are fibres (wood, cotton), grains (wheat, corn, soybean), food (coffee, cocoa, orange juice) and livestock (cattle, hogs, pork bellies). Energy products can be crude oil, heating oil and natural gas whereas examples of metal products are copper, aluminum, gold, silver and platinum.
The main reason behind investing in commodities is that they have negative correlation with stock and bond returns. This will provide a good way to diversify portfolio risks. Besides, given that commodities are positively co-related to inflation, they can help investors hedge against inflation.
Investors can consider investing directly in commodities or indirectly by buying into futures contracts, bonds indexed on some commodity price as well as stocks of commodity related companies.
Some companies will invest in commodities that are extensively used as raw materials in their production processes. High commodity prices or raw material prices will affect those companies’ performance. However, if they have invested in their raw materials, even though their profitability might be affected by high raw material prices, the gains from their investment in those commodities will offset the losses in their operations.
Some investors will consider buying into commodity futures, such as crude palm oil (CPO) futures as this is one of the easiest and cheapest ways to get exposure to commodities.
However, investors need to understand that futures trading requires a high level of trading skills as most commodity players are well-equipped with the required market information, like total world supply and demand of CPO as well as the weather conditions in those producing countries. Some financial institutions may offer unit trust funds that invest directly in those commodities or indirectly through buying into commodity futures. In the United States, investors can buy into commodities via exchange traded funds (ETF) that are invested in commodities futures.
An ETF is a special type of fund that tracks some market indices and it is traded on a stock market like any common share. Given that the world economy may recover further and oil prices may go beyond US$100 per barrel again, buying into oil or other commodity related ETFs may provide retail investors an alternative to get exposure into commodities.
Since commodity cycles and the general business and stock market cycles are usually different, investing in commodities provides a good way of portfolio diversification.
Besides, investors can consider buying into collateralised futures funds (sometimes they are referred as structured products). A collateralised futures fund is a portfolio that takes a small long position in commodity futures and invests the rest of the money in government securities. Normally, it is capital guaranteed as the yield generated by government securities will be used to cover for the cost incurred for the futures contracts.
Lastly, investors can consider buying into listed companies that are commodity related. In Malaysia, if investors wish to gain from higher CPO prices, they can consider buying into plantation companies.
Given the current gold prices of more than US$1,150 per ounce, some investors are eager to know whether there are any further upsides to the gold prices. Some analysts and fund managers have predicted that the gold prices may go beyond US$1,200 to US$1,300 per ounce. Investors will rush into gold during a financial crisis, like the current financial crunch and the Great Depression in 1929-32, because gold can keep its value during those periods.
We believe that gold is a cyclical product. Even though nobody knows how high the gold prices can go, given that the world economy is showing signs of recovery, the upside potential for gold investing may be limited.
● Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.
Related Stories:
Gold price hits another record high
US stocks up, shakes off Dubai crisis scare
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ฉ 1995-2009 Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd (Co No 10894-D)
Gold price hits another record high
Updated: Wednesday December 2, 2009 MYT 10:29:50 AM
NEW YORK: Gold prices breached $1,200 an ounce on Tuesday, rallying as the US dollar fell further against other currencies.
The decline in the dollar pushed other metals to their highest levels in more than a year.
Energy futures also rose.
Following a well-established trend, investors sold the dollar and other safe havens like Treasurys and piled into stocks and commodities.
Demand for riskier assets increased as fears over a possible debt crisis in the Middle Eastern city-state of Dubai eased and investors got more good news on the economic recovery in the U.S.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for February delivery jumped to a new record of $1,204 an ounce before settling at $1,200.20 an ounce, up $17.90, or 1.5 percent, from Monday's close.
Gold has been on a record-breaking climb over the past few months as the dollar weakens.
The precious metal is seen as a good hedge against a weak dollar and potential inflation because of its stable store of value.
Just over a year ago, gold prices hit a low of around $700.
That was at the height of the financial crisis, when investors were dumping stocks and commodities across the board.
The dollar has weakened steadily this year as low interest rates encourage investors to buy assets other than cash, like stocks and commodities, and potentially reap higher returns.
A weaker greenback also makes commodities, which are priced in dollars, more attractive to investors overseas.
The ICE Futures US dollar index, a popular gauge of the dollar's performance, fell 0.5 percent in afternoon trading Tuesday. Major stock indexes, meanwhile, soared more than 1 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which jumped 127 points to its highest close of the year.
Among the day's data, the Institute for Supply Management said new manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in November, but new orders rose, an encouraging sign that a pickup could materialize in the coming months.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of sales agreements rose in October to the highest level since March 2006. A separate report said construction spending ticked up, another good sign for the housing market.
Elsewhere on the Nymex, March silver surged 68.5 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $19.21 an ounce.
Earlier, silver rose to $19.30, its highest level since March 2008. Copper futures rose to $3.238, their highest since September 2008, before settling up 5.4 cents at $3.231 a pound.
December platinum rose $26.20 to $1,485.70 an ounce. Palladium rose 5 percent.
Oil prices also got a boost from the weaker dollar, as well as a report showing manufacturing activity in China grew for the ninth straight month.
That stirred hopes that Chinese energy demand could pick up.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose $1.09 to settle at $78.37.
Heating oil rose 3.01 cents to $2.078 a gallon, while gasoline gained 3.08 cents to $2.0423 a gallon.
Grain prices fell slightly on the Chicago Board of Trade.
March wheat futures slid 4.75 cents to $5.84 a bushel, while corn for March delivery shed 3 cents to $4.145 a bushel.
January soybeans dipped 1 cent to $10.595 a bushel.
December coffee added 0.75 cent to $1.425 a pound, while December cocoa jumped $101 to $3,315 a ton. - AP
(In Kuala Lumpur the price of gold closed at RM130.51 per gramme today, up RM2.12 from yesterday, Bernama reported.)
Latest NYSE, NASDAQ and other business news, from AP-Wire
For latest Bursa Malaysia indices, charts and other information click here
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com
Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com
For Tokyo Stock Exchange click here
Related Stories:
How to diversify investments during this time of crisis
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ฉ 1995-2009 Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd (Co No 10894-D)
NEW YORK: Gold prices breached $1,200 an ounce on Tuesday, rallying as the US dollar fell further against other currencies.
The decline in the dollar pushed other metals to their highest levels in more than a year.
Energy futures also rose.
Following a well-established trend, investors sold the dollar and other safe havens like Treasurys and piled into stocks and commodities.
Demand for riskier assets increased as fears over a possible debt crisis in the Middle Eastern city-state of Dubai eased and investors got more good news on the economic recovery in the U.S.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for February delivery jumped to a new record of $1,204 an ounce before settling at $1,200.20 an ounce, up $17.90, or 1.5 percent, from Monday's close.
Gold has been on a record-breaking climb over the past few months as the dollar weakens.
The precious metal is seen as a good hedge against a weak dollar and potential inflation because of its stable store of value.
Just over a year ago, gold prices hit a low of around $700.
That was at the height of the financial crisis, when investors were dumping stocks and commodities across the board.
The dollar has weakened steadily this year as low interest rates encourage investors to buy assets other than cash, like stocks and commodities, and potentially reap higher returns.
A weaker greenback also makes commodities, which are priced in dollars, more attractive to investors overseas.
The ICE Futures US dollar index, a popular gauge of the dollar's performance, fell 0.5 percent in afternoon trading Tuesday. Major stock indexes, meanwhile, soared more than 1 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which jumped 127 points to its highest close of the year.
Among the day's data, the Institute for Supply Management said new manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in November, but new orders rose, an encouraging sign that a pickup could materialize in the coming months.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of sales agreements rose in October to the highest level since March 2006. A separate report said construction spending ticked up, another good sign for the housing market.
Elsewhere on the Nymex, March silver surged 68.5 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $19.21 an ounce.
Earlier, silver rose to $19.30, its highest level since March 2008. Copper futures rose to $3.238, their highest since September 2008, before settling up 5.4 cents at $3.231 a pound.
December platinum rose $26.20 to $1,485.70 an ounce. Palladium rose 5 percent.
Oil prices also got a boost from the weaker dollar, as well as a report showing manufacturing activity in China grew for the ninth straight month.
That stirred hopes that Chinese energy demand could pick up.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose $1.09 to settle at $78.37.
Heating oil rose 3.01 cents to $2.078 a gallon, while gasoline gained 3.08 cents to $2.0423 a gallon.
Grain prices fell slightly on the Chicago Board of Trade.
March wheat futures slid 4.75 cents to $5.84 a bushel, while corn for March delivery shed 3 cents to $4.145 a bushel.
January soybeans dipped 1 cent to $10.595 a bushel.
December coffee added 0.75 cent to $1.425 a pound, while December cocoa jumped $101 to $3,315 a ton. - AP
(In Kuala Lumpur the price of gold closed at RM130.51 per gramme today, up RM2.12 from yesterday, Bernama reported.)
Latest NYSE, NASDAQ and other business news, from AP-Wire
For latest Bursa Malaysia indices, charts and other information click here
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com
Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com
For Tokyo Stock Exchange click here
Related Stories:
How to diversify investments during this time of crisis
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ฉ 1995-2009 Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd (Co No 10894-D)
Mier: Malaysia may need third stimulus package
The Star Online > Business
Wednesday December 2, 2009
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia may need a third stimulus package should the US economy go into a relapse next year, according to the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier).
Executive director Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff said in the event of a double dip recession in the US, Malaysia could use an additional RM8bil to pump prime the economy and “that is something we can afford to have.”
“We may need an additional RM8bil if there is going to be a double dip (recession) in the US and elsewhere,” he told reporters after the Mier National Economic Outlook Conference 2010-2011 yesterday.
He said the government’s spending from the first and second stimulus packages amounted to only RM22bil of the total RM67bil under the packages. “The second stimulus package would have exhausted itself by May,” he said.
The government has so far introduced two stimulus packages totalling RM67bil, with the first package at RM7bil in November last year and the second stimulus package worth RM60bil in March this year to cover a two-year period.
“We may have to brace ourselves for a slightly bigger budget deficit,” Ariff said, adding that the current national debt was small in comparison to what it was before and that of other countries in the region. The government is targeting a budget deficit of 5.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) for next year.
“Our national debt is 42% of GDP, Japan’s is 187%, India’s is 110%. So, by our own and regional standard it is small,” Ariff said, adding that 95% of the government debt was sourced domestically, and only 5% was foreign.
“However, the government needs to be prudent in handling the debt or else the country’s sovereign rating would suffer,” he said.
Meanwhile, the private think tank also expects the country’s economy to contract by -3.3% this year and expand by 3.7% next year, while it concomitantly forecasts GDP growth of 5% for 2011.
“The economy is doing much better than we had anticipated. It is a regional trend,” Ariff said.
“Malaysia needs to grow by 1% in the fourth quarter to register growth better than –3% for the year. But we are still holding on the original forecast of -3.3% and wait to see the fourth quarter results,” he said.
However, he said all indications were that the economy would perform better than Mier’s forecast three months ago.
“The potential (annual) growth rate of the Malaysian economy is 5.5% at this point in time. Until 2011, we see the economy hovering below the potential growth rate,” he said.
Meanwhile, he said the government’s target of 5% growth next year was a tall order and “the PM’s personal target.”
“It is going to be tough. One can engineer that, but at what cost? A 5% growth may mean a bigger budget deficit, much bigger national debt. There is a cost. But what’s the point if you cant sustain it,” he said. He said he expected accommodative policies to be in place throughout 2010.
“The monetary policy will remain relaxed with overnight policy rate of 2%. We don’t expect a revision – upward or downward – in the next 12 months,” he said.
Ariff also said downside risks were still prevalent and might perturb the road to recovery.
“While the worst is over and we are moving to positive growth territory, the future is uncertain. 2010 can be more challenging than this year and there are a lot of landmines to avoid, like asset bubbles, high oil prices and exchange rate risk.
“The recovery we see is still fragile. There is still a 50% chance of a relapse in the first half of next year. The growth we see in most economies is artificial growth engineered by huge fiscal stimulus,” he said.
For more MIER reports click here
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ฉ 1995-2009 Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd (Co No 10894-D)
Wednesday December 2, 2009
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia may need a third stimulus package should the US economy go into a relapse next year, according to the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier).
Executive director Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff said in the event of a double dip recession in the US, Malaysia could use an additional RM8bil to pump prime the economy and “that is something we can afford to have.”
“We may need an additional RM8bil if there is going to be a double dip (recession) in the US and elsewhere,” he told reporters after the Mier National Economic Outlook Conference 2010-2011 yesterday.
He said the government’s spending from the first and second stimulus packages amounted to only RM22bil of the total RM67bil under the packages. “The second stimulus package would have exhausted itself by May,” he said.
The government has so far introduced two stimulus packages totalling RM67bil, with the first package at RM7bil in November last year and the second stimulus package worth RM60bil in March this year to cover a two-year period.
“We may have to brace ourselves for a slightly bigger budget deficit,” Ariff said, adding that the current national debt was small in comparison to what it was before and that of other countries in the region. The government is targeting a budget deficit of 5.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) for next year.
“Our national debt is 42% of GDP, Japan’s is 187%, India’s is 110%. So, by our own and regional standard it is small,” Ariff said, adding that 95% of the government debt was sourced domestically, and only 5% was foreign.
“However, the government needs to be prudent in handling the debt or else the country’s sovereign rating would suffer,” he said.
Meanwhile, the private think tank also expects the country’s economy to contract by -3.3% this year and expand by 3.7% next year, while it concomitantly forecasts GDP growth of 5% for 2011.
“The economy is doing much better than we had anticipated. It is a regional trend,” Ariff said.
“Malaysia needs to grow by 1% in the fourth quarter to register growth better than –3% for the year. But we are still holding on the original forecast of -3.3% and wait to see the fourth quarter results,” he said.
However, he said all indications were that the economy would perform better than Mier’s forecast three months ago.
“The potential (annual) growth rate of the Malaysian economy is 5.5% at this point in time. Until 2011, we see the economy hovering below the potential growth rate,” he said.
Meanwhile, he said the government’s target of 5% growth next year was a tall order and “the PM’s personal target.”
“It is going to be tough. One can engineer that, but at what cost? A 5% growth may mean a bigger budget deficit, much bigger national debt. There is a cost. But what’s the point if you cant sustain it,” he said. He said he expected accommodative policies to be in place throughout 2010.
“The monetary policy will remain relaxed with overnight policy rate of 2%. We don’t expect a revision – upward or downward – in the next 12 months,” he said.
Ariff also said downside risks were still prevalent and might perturb the road to recovery.
“While the worst is over and we are moving to positive growth territory, the future is uncertain. 2010 can be more challenging than this year and there are a lot of landmines to avoid, like asset bubbles, high oil prices and exchange rate risk.
“The recovery we see is still fragile. There is still a 50% chance of a relapse in the first half of next year. The growth we see in most economies is artificial growth engineered by huge fiscal stimulus,” he said.
For more MIER reports click here
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ฉ 1995-2009 Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd (Co No 10894-D)
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