Chance of 2012 U.S. recession tops 50 percent: Fed paper

(Reuters) - The European debt crisis is raising the odds of a U.S. recession, with economic contraction more likely than not by early 2012, according to research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.

While it is difficult to gauge the odds precisely, an analysis of leading U.S. economic indicators suggests a rising chance of a recession through the end of the year and into early next year, researchers at the regional Fed bank wrote on Monday. The risk of recession recedes after the second half of 2012, they found.

New governments in Greece and Italy, with fresh promises to tackle fiscal problems have in recent days, allayed investor concerns about a near-term sovereign debt default in the euro zone, but Europe's debt crisis is far from resolved. The region is facing its worst hour since World War II, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday.

Although domestic threats to economic growth in the United States are limited, a shock from abroad could derail a fragile recovery.

The weak U.S. economy is more than usually vulnerable to turbulence beyond its borders, as the unexpectedly severe U.S. effects from Japan's devastating earthquake in March demonstrates, the researchers said.

"A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession," wrote Travis Berge, Early Elias and Oscar Jorda in the latest San Francisco Fed Economic Letter. "However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013.

The assessment of recession risk is more dire than that of many private economists. A November 4 Reuters poll of primary dealers shows Wall Street economists see a 30 percent chance of a U.S. recession next year, down from 35.5 percent a month earlier.

Last week the Federal Reserve's influential vice chairwoman Janet Yellen warned on the threat from Europe, saying governments there need to take forceful steps to contain the crisis or risk substantial damage to the United States.

Before taking her post at the Fed Board in Washington, Yellen headed the San Francisco Fed.

Her successor, John Williams, is due to give a major policy speech on Tuesday.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
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Health Benefits: Cinnamon and Honey

Honey is the only food on the planet that will not spoil or rot. What it will do is what some call 'turning to sugar'. In reality, honey is always honey. However, when left in a cool dark place for a long time it will "crystallize". When this happens loosen the lid, boil some water and sit the honey container in the hot water, but turn off the heat and let it liquefy naturally. It is then as good as it ever was. Never boil honey or put it in a microwave. This will kill the enzymes in the honey.Cinnamon and Honey Bet the drug companies won't like this one getting around. Facts on Honey and Cinnamon: It is found that a mixture of honey and Cinnamon cures most diseases. Honey is produced in most of the countries of the world. Scientists of today also accept honey as a 'Ram Ban' (very effective) medicine for all kinds of diseases. Honey can be used without side effects for any kind of diseases. Today's science says that even though honey is sweet, when it is taken in the right dosage as a medicine, it does not harm even diabetic patients. Weekly World News, a magazine in Canada, in its issue dated 17 January,1995 has given the following list of diseases that can be cured by honey and cinnamon, as researched by western scientists:



HEART DISEASES: Make a paste of honey and cinnamon powder, apply it on bread instead of jelly and jam and eat it regularly for breakfast. It reduces the cholesterol in the arteries and saves the patient from heart attack. Also, those who have already had an attack, when they do this process daily, they are kept miles away from the next attack. Regular use of the above process relieves loss of breath and strengthens the heart beat. In America and Canada, various nursing homes have treated patients successfully and have found that as one ages the arteries and veins lose their flexibility and get clogged; honey and cinnamon revitalize the arteries and the veins.

WEIGHT LOSS: Daily in the morning one half hour before breakfast and on an empty stomach, and at night before sleeping, drink honey and cinnamon powder boiled in one cup of water. When taken regularly, it reduces the weight of even the most obese person. Also, drinking this mixture regularly does not allow the fat to accumulate in the body even though the person may eat a high calorie diet.

ARTHRITIS: Arthritis patients may take daily (morning and night) one cup of hot water with two tablespoons of honey and one small teaspoon of cinnamon powder. When taken regularly even chronic arthritis can be cured. In a recent research conducted at the Copenhagen University, it was found that when the doctors treated their patients with a mixture of one tablespoon Honey and half teaspoon Cinnamon powder before breakfast, they found that within a week (out of the 200 people so treated) practically 73 patients were totally relieved of pain -- and within a month, most all the patients who could not walk or move around because of arthritis now started walking without pain.

BLADDER INFECTIONS: Take two tablespoons of cinnamon powder and one teaspoon of honey in a glass of lukewarm water and drink it. It destroys the germs in the bladder..

CHOLESTEROL: Two tablespoons of honey and three teaspoons of Cinnamon Powder mixed in 16 ounces of tea water given to a cholesterol patient was found to reduce the level of cholesterol in the blood by 10 percent within two hours. As mentioned for arthritic patients, when taken three times a day, any chronic cholesterol is cured. According to information received in the said Journal, pure honey taken with food daily relieves complaints of cholesterol.

COLDS: Those suffering from common or severe colds should take one tablespoon lukewarm honey with 1/4 spoon cinnamon powder daily for three days. This process will cure most chronic cough, cold, and, clear the sinuses.

UPSET STOMACH: Honey taken with cinnamon powder cures stomach ache and also clears stomach ulcers from its root.

GAS: According to the studies done in India and Japan, it is revealed that when Honey is taken with cinnamon powder the stomach is relieved of gas.

IMMUNE SYSTEM: Daily use of honey and cinnamon powder strengthens the immune system and protects the body from bacterial and viral attacks. Scientists have found that honey has various vitamins and iron in large amounts. Constant use of Honey strengthens the white blood corpuscles (where DNA is contained) to fight bacterial and viral diseases.

INDIGESTION: Cinnamon powder sprinkled on two tablespoons of honey taken before food is eaten relieves acidity and digests the heaviest of meals.

INFLUENZA: A scientist in Spain has proved that honey contains a natural 'Ingredient' which kills the influenza germs and saves the patient from flu.

LONGEVITY: Tea made with honey and cinnamon powder, when taken regularly, arrests the ravages of old age. Use four teaspoons of honey, one teaspoon of cinnamon powder, and three cups of water and boil to make a tea. Drink 1/4 cup, three to four times a day. It keeps the skin fresh and soft and arrests old age. Life spans increase and even a 100 year old will start performing the chores of a 20-year-old..

RASPY OR SORE THROAT: When throat has a tickle or is raspy, take one tablespoon of honey and sip until gone. Repeat every three hours until throat is without symptoms.

PIMPLES: Three tablespoons of honey and one teaspoon of cinnamon powder paste. Apply this paste on the pimples before sleeping and wash it off the next morning with warm water. When done daily for two weeks, it removes all pimples from the root.

SKIN INFECTIONS: Applying honey and cinnamon powder in equal parts on the affected parts cures eczema, ringworm and all types of skin infections.

CANCER: Recent research in Japan and Australia has revealed that advanced cancer of the stomach and bones have been cured successfully. Patients suffering from these kinds of cancer should daily take one tablespoon of honey with one teaspoon of cinnamon powder three times a day for one month .

FATIGUE: Recent studies have shown that the sugar content of honey is more helpful rather than being detrimental to the strength of the body. Senior citizens who take honey and cinnamon powder in equal parts are more alert and flexible. Dr. Milton, who has done research, says that a half tablespoon of honey taken in a glass of water and sprinkled with cinnamon powder, even when the vitality of the body starts to decrease, when taken daily after brushing and in the afternoon at about 3:00 P.M., the vitality of the body increases within a week.

BAD BREATH: People of South America, gargle with one teaspoon of honey and cinnamon powder mixed in hot water first thing in the morning so their breath stays fresh throughout the day.

HEARING LOSS: Daily morning and night honey and cinnamon powder, taken in equal parts restores hearing.

Remember when we were kids? We had toast with real butter and cinnamon sprinkled on it!

You might want to share this information with a friend, kinfolks and loved ones. Everyone needs healthy help information ~ what they do with it is up to them ~ share with your email buddies... They deserve to be healthy too!!!

Gold slumps record $100; stocks edge up

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold prices slumped more than $100 an ounce on Friday, the biggest fall on record in dollar terms, as traders sold to cover losses, while global stocks edged up on expectations the European Central Bank will take new measures to contain the euro zone debt crisis.

Trading was volatile, capping one of the most tumultuous weeks on record for world markets as fear of a Greek default and a gloomy Federal Reserve prognosis for the U.S. economy sparked a sell-off in stocks and commodities and drove investors to the safe-haven U.S. dollar and Treasuries.

A pledge by G20 policy makers that they will calm the global financial system failed to appease investors, who are concerned that authorities are unable to respond effectively to the mounting euro zone debt crisis and sluggish growth in major world economies.

Gold slumped more than 6 percent at one point -- its biggest drop since the financial crisis in 2008 -- to hit its lowest since early August as a slide turned into a free-fall, with weeks of volatility and talk of hedge fund liquidation wrecking its safe-haven status.

"The bull case for gold is on pause for the near term," said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist for precious metals at MF Global in Chicago.

"In the near-term, the flight-to-quality interest in owning gold is also out of the window as people are not interested in buying it even in the face of fears in the economy. Until it stabilizes, I'm staying out of this market."

Spot gold was last at $1,649 an ounce, after falling to a session low under $1,628. At $127 an ounce, the intraday move was the biggest on record in dollar terms.

U.S. stocks ended higher after seesawing between gains and losses, stopping the bleeding after a disastrous four days of selling marred by severe anxiety.

Comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny, who said it might be advisable for the central bank to add more liquidity to European banks helped lift sentiment.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended up 37.65 points, or 0.35 percent, at 10,771.48. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 6.87 points, or 0.61 percent, at 1,136.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 27.56 points, or 1.12 percent, at 2,483.23.

Global stocks as measured by the MSCI All-Country index were up 0.2 percent, after hitting their lowest level since July 2010 at 274.20.

The index is now in bear market territory -- defined as a fall of 20 percent or more from the peak -- having tumbled more than 22 percent from its 2011 high in May.

"Financial markets are sick and tired of the authorities in Europe and in the U.S. twiddling their thumbs and not doing substantive things to solve this crisis of the global economy," said Barton Biggs, managing partner at New York-based Traxis Partners.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index ended up 0.8 percent. Emerging markets stocks slid 1.6 percent.

COMMODITIES ROUT

Liquidity comments from ECB officials and speculation the central bank may cut rates helped sentiment initially, but uncertainty about Greece remained.

Greece denied reports that one option in its debt crisis would be an orderly default with a 50 percent haircut, while Deutsche Bank warned that European banks' write-downs on Greek bonds could exceed 25 percent.

Metals prices plunged across the board. Silver prices posted their biggest drop since 2006. Spot silver was down 15 percent and trading below $35.76 an ounce after hitting a session low of $29.77.

Copper hit $7,115.75, its lowest since August 2010. It was its sharpest weekly decline in nearly three years for the economically sensitive red metal.

U.S. crude fell 66 cents to settle at $79.85 a barrel. London Brent crude fell $1.52 to settle at $103.97.

The euro rose 0.4 percent to $1.3515, rebounding from an eight-month low. The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 76.66 yen and was on track for its best month since May 2010 against a basket of currencies.

U.S. Treasuries prices slipped after a huge rally this week.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year notes were down 1-2/32 in price, with yields rising to 1.84 percent. Prices of 30-year bonds were down 2-1/32, yielding 2.90 percent.

(Additional reporting by Ryan Vlastelica, Steven C. Johnson and Barani Krishnan in New York and Harpreet Bhal in London; Editing by Andrew Hay)