Gold price touches highest mark in 18 months, US$ down

Wednesday September 9, 2009 MYT 7:54:00 AM

NEW YORK: Gold pushed above the US$1,000 mark Tuesday for the first time since February as hopes for an improving economy fed a broader rally in commodities.
It had risen as high as $1,009.70, the first time it topped $1,000 since early this year and the highest level since mid-March last year.
Gold closed under $950 on Aug. 27.
December silver jumped 22.5 cents to $16.510 an ounce and hit a 13-month high of $16.860.
A weaker dollar also drove prices higher, analysts said.
The gains also came after the Group of 20 leading economies pledged at a weekend meeting in London to maintain higher levels of government spending and low interest rates to help the world's economies recover from recession.
Concerns that a recovery could spark inflationary pressures helped lift prices for gold, which investors often use as a hedge against inflation.
Gold for December delivery rose $3.10 to settle $999.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Copper, nickel and zinc also gained.
Benchmark crude rose more than $3 a barrel.
Tom Winmill, portfolio manager of the Midas Fund in New York, contends that the gain in gold is, in part, a show of confidence by investors and not just a guard against the dollar.
He said rising prices for commodities like platinum and oil signal that investors are placing bets on an improvement in the economy.
"Prices are rising for commodities and that's going to carry gold," he said. Winmill said, however, that a weaker dollar eventually could be the biggest force pushing gold higher.
"Ultimately, weakness in the dollar is going to be the thing that is going to underpin a big, big move in gold," he said.
The gains in gold prices follow a rally last week that came as the dollar weakened and as analysts said investors were looking for areas of safety.
A six-month surge in stocks has left the Standard & Poor's 500 index up 50 percent from a 12-year low in early March.
Gains of that size often take years to accumulate, and some investors are worried the stock market is due for a correction.
In other trading, light, sweet crude for October delivery rose $3.08 to settle at $71.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gasoline futures for October delivery rose more than 5.26 cents to $1.8289 a gallon. Heating oil advanced 6.2 cents to $1.7825 a gallon.
Natural gas rose 7.9 cents to $2.807 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Grain prices were mixed on the Chicago Board of Trade.
December wheat futures fell 12.75 cents to $4.59 a bushel.
Corn for December delivery rose 1.25 cents to $3.0750 a bushel.
November soybeans rose 14.5 cents to $9.3650 a bushel.
Other soft commodities, like cotton, cocoa and coffee rose. Orange juice and sugar fell.
Meanwhile United States dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors switched funds into riskier investments.
Commitments from global leaders this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market currencies and equities, analysts said.
Published comments from a Chinese government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FXSolutions.
"The Chinese have serious influence," he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.
The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to $1.4490 in later trading.
The British pound rose to $1.6487 from $1.6335, while the dollar dropped to 92.32 Japanese yen from 92.96 yen.
The dollar index fell as low as 77.05 against a basket of six major world currencies that includes the euro, yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.
That's its lowest since last September.
Markets have been rising after finance officials from the Group of 20 leading economies pledged to maintain government spending, low interest rates and expansion of the money supply in order to buck up the global economy.
The ministers met this weekend in London. Those moves could help boost economic activity and liquidity in financial markets, but can weigh on the value of a currency.
The current U.S. rate near zero means investors can earn better returns on their funds in countries with higher yields, such as, for example, Poland, Turkey, Brazil and Australia.
"People are loading up on high-yielders," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, as they get more optimistic about the global economy's growth outlook.
A report from a United Nations agency released on Monday also called for a reduced role for the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency.
And in an interview published on Sunday, Cheng Siwei, a Chinese official, knocked the Fed's policy of buying bonds as an inflation trigger that will undermine the dollar.
The Federal Reserve has committed to buying up to $300 billion in longterm Treasurys to boost liquidity in financial markets and hold down interest rates.
"Most of our foreign reserves are in U.S. bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies," the Chinese official said in the interview in the U.K.'s Telegraph newspaper.
China and Russia have been vocal this year about the need to diversify reserves away from the dollar as its value dropped.
Chinese officials have called for the creation of a new global reserve currency by the International Monetary Fund.
Siwei's interview and the U.N. report have "drawn attention back to the fact that we have twin deficits and low interest rates," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York.
That's "simply feeding into current negative dollar sentiment" as sovereign nations gradually sell their U.S. dollars.
There's an assumption that "when Chinese officials speak on this topic they are not doing it without having their remarks vetted by the Chinese government," Trevisani said.
Whether that is true or not, he said, "you assume that there is some warning here."
China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, trimmed its holdings, to $776.4 billion in June from $801.5 billion in May.
Russia also reduced its holdings 3.7 percent to $119.9 billion in June.
The price of gold, meanwhile, shot past $1,000 an ounce for the first time since February. Gold for December delivery peaked at $1,009.70, the highest since March 2008, on the New York Mercantile Exchange before falling back to settle at $999.80.
Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar.
Other currencies also climbed against the dollar, especially those in countries which are major exporters of commodities, as oil prices gained more than $2.
A strong economy would use more commodities in factories and transportation.
The New Zealand dollar hit its strongest point since last September at 69.83 U.S. cents, while the Australian dollar peaked at 86.58 U.S. cents, its highest level in more than a year.
The dollar dropped to 1.0807 Canadian dollars from 1.0763 and tumbled to 1.8260 Brazilian reals from 1.8445 reals late Monday.
In other trading, the dollar hit a low for 2009 against the Swiss franc at 1.0428 on Tuesday, down from 1.0597 late Monday.
It later traded at 1.0472 Swiss francs. AP

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